Market News January 17

Market Updates

Annual Housing Sentiment on the Rise


While Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased by 1.9 points in December 2024, the annual numbers are higher than late 2023 levels. One reason for this: some consumers are still expecting mortgage rates to decline during 2025.

Here's a breakdown of the major Index components.

Mortgage Rate Expectations: Fewer respondents are hopeful that rates will decrease during 2025, with only 16% still thinking we'll see lower rates. Around 25% think that rates will increase, while the numbers who believe that rates will remain the same increased to 32%.

Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who thought it was a good time to buy a home decreased from 23% to 22%, while the percentage who said it was a bad time to buy increased one point to 78%.

Good/Bad Time to Sell: Responses were similar to buying sentiment. Respondents who said it was a good time to sell a home decreased from 64% to 63%, while the percentage who said it's a bad time to sell increased from 35% to 36%.

Home Price Expectations: While the numbers of respondents who thought that home prices will increase were the same as the previous month (38%), hopefuls who said home prices will go down increased from 25% to 27%. The share who said home prices will stay the same decreased 1% to 35%.1

Watch Out For AI-Powered Scams


While artificial intelligence (AI) has made our lives easier, it's also made scammers' lives easier. This is why more people are falling prey to spear phishing. "Spear phishing" describes scammers' emails and messages that have been personalized to appear authentic, increasing the number of victims.

Researchers recently tested the effectiveness of AI-supported spear phishing...and the results are worrisome.

When cyber-security researchers attempted to compose their own spear phishing messages by locating potential victims' online information, they were able to create scarily effective emails with a 54% click-through rate.

The best way to protect yourself and your computer system is to never click on any links within an unsolicited email. Also, look for misspelled words and low-quality images.2

More Viewers, Fewer Buyers


There are more viewers checking out inventory as 2025 begins, but many of them are putting off making an offer. On January 5th, Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index posted a 2% increase from a month earlier and also noted a 2% year-over-year increase.

While some potential buyers have accepted the fact that mortgage rates are higher than they'd like, others have noticed that there's more inventory for sale in their area.

One reason why pending home sales fell 3.1% year-over-year is that last year, mortgage rates fell, encouraging would-be buyers to make their move.3

TikTok's Day in Court


Last week, the US Supreme Court heard arguments over the TikTok ban-or-divest law, which could lead to the app's 170 million American users losing access. When the ruling is handed down, it could mean that TikTok will be banned as soon as next week if its owner (Chinese company ByteDance) doesn't divest from it. And ByteDance has no plans to sell.

Making TikTok's cell phone app available would result in huge fines for Apple's App Store and Google Play, which would effectively shut down usage for American users.

While TikTok's lawyers argue that a ban would violate free speech rights, Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argues that the app's Chinese ownership is a national security risk.

If the ban happens, users will probably migrate to similar platforms such as InstaReels and YouTube shorts. While ByteDance is already promoting a similar app, Lemon8, the ban-or-divest law could apply to all of the company's apps.4

Affordable Cities For 2025

The current state of the housing market is still a barrier to some buyers, especially first-time buyers in the 25- to 34-year-old range. A recent Realtor.com report identified some of the nation's most affordable cities, using a ratio that compared median listing prices to median incomes.

Here are the top five markets and their forecasted 2025 sales growth:
  • Harrisburg, PA - 16.8%
  • Rochester, NY - 8.7%
  • Villas, FL -13.2%
  • Lauderdale Lakes, FL - 24%
  • Altamonte Springs, FL - 15.2%
Runners-up included Lansing, Michigan; North Little Rock, Arkansas; Baltimore, Maryland and Wilmington, Delaware.

The report's ranking criteria also considered average commute times, and availability of amenities such as shopping, day care and restaurants.This is why the rankings don't correspond to sales growth forecasts.5

Sources: 1fanniemae.com, 2malwarebytes.com, 3redfin.com, 4sherwood.news, 5nationalmortgageprofessional.com